Weatherman Calls for Damp Summer

Charlene M. Shupp
Espenshade
Special Sections Editor

MANHEIM, Pa. — Drought will not be a problem this year, according to Joe Calhoun, speaking at Tuesday’s “Farming for Success” crop tour here at the Penn State Landisville Research Farm.

The WGAL meteorologist predicted a damp summer. He also said that seven of 10 prediction models are forecasting a moderate to strong El Niño forming for the rest of the year. El Niño is a weather pattern caused by above-normal Pacific Ocean temperatures.

“I think what we are seeing is an active weather pattern through the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic,” he said. This is the result of a cooler than normal pattern in New England colliding with the hot weather of the Great Plains.

This pattern is also supported by the jet stream, which is pulling cooler weather into New England.

“The bottom line is, before we get into this stronger El Niño, before we transition, we are going to be stuck into that pattern,” he said.

In the South Atlantic, he said that the water is cooler than normal, leading to much stronger pressure patterns, which will lead to normal or less than normal tropical system developments. However the wild card could be systems that develop in the Gulf of Mexico or farther off in the Atlantic Ocean.

“With the El Niño coming on, we could have a snowier than normal winter,” he said. “The hottest part of the summer will be the end, the end of August through September.” He stressed again that the tropical developments off the Atlantic could change this.

As for an early frost, he said it’s not likely because there will not be the cool weather injections to cause it.

Calhoun addressed climate change briefly. He said that we are coming out of a 10-year warming period and could be heading into a cooling period.

According to Calhoun, the big question is how well Mother Nature can compensate for changes caused by human activities.

“That is biggest question and debate,” he said.

Calhoun said while the science in weather forecasting has improved vastly for the short range and mid-range forecast models and trends, long-term forecasting is unreliable. “The atmosphere is very fluid,” he said.
“When you get to that seventh day (of forecasting) you have to give a trend. It’s a very difficult thing.”

He questioned the reliability of computer models making predictions years into the future. Those long-term models “may or may not be scientifically worthwhile” because of the number of unknowns, he said.

Charlene Shupp Espenshade can be reached at cshupp.eph@lnpnews.com.