Want Alternative Energy? Conserve and Get Ready to Pay Up

CHRIS TORRES
Staff Writer

BELTSVILLE, Md. — Conservation will be a key to solving this country’s thirst for foreign oil. But you may want to open up those pocketbooks as well.
At least that was the view expressed Oct. 17 by a leading expert on biofuels and ag economics.

Otto Doering, a professor of ag economics at Purdue University and a public policy specialist who has worked on Farm Bills dating back to the 1970s, spoke at the USDA’s Beltsville Research Center on “where we are headed” in terms of biofuel use in the U.S.

While government officials and private industry are looking for the next “big thing” to replace foreign oil as the country’s leading energy source, Doering said the options are few, expensive and in some cases, impractical.

“There is a true supply, demand crunch,” he said.

A recent report Doering pointed to by the National Commission on Energy Policy forecasts the U.S. will be consuming 27 million barrels of oil a day by 2030. Almost 20 million barrels of oil are consumed each day today.

To make matters complicated, Doering said the report states the U.S. will only be producing 10.5 million barrels domestically, with the rest being supplied by foreign suppliers.

At a time when the political climate in the Middle East is as fragile as ever, there are fears that oil supplies may be interrupted sometime in the future.
For a minimal effect on the U.S. economy, Doering said the report forecasts demand can’t increase past today’s number and that fuel supplies will have to increase domestically.

“We can’t be using more oil 23 years from now than we are today,” he said.

With very few options in terms of drilling for new oil, new technology will have to lead the way. But the options, according to Doering, are limited and expensive.

Ethanol, which comes from corn, has become a darling of alternative fuel proponents. Plants have been opening at a rapid rate in the Midwest — the heart of corn country — with many more plants in the works. It has given corn farmers a boost.

But opponents argue ethanol depletes supplies, to the point it is effecting the way farmers feed their livestock and how much people spend on their food.
Now a new challenge has sprung up—logistics.

Ethanol can’t be piped using existing oil lines because it corrodes them. Doering also said railroad companies are threatening to ban shipments because it can be potentially flammable and dangerous if an accident occurs.

“If we’re making more than we ship, that’s a problem,” he said. “We basically have major producers in the Midwest, who are shifting down their capacity.”

Cellulosic ethanol is years down the road at best, Doering said. And things such as solar, wind and nuclear energy are expensive because of their capital costs.

Wind energy, he said, can be potentially costly because wind isn’t always blowing and you would need natural gas to operate the turbine when light winds are blowing.

Nuclear energy, he said, which at one time was popular but lost its momentum because of high profile accidents such as the one at Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, will be expensive to get going again because of the high costs and safeguards that have to be put in.

So what’s the solution? A combination of conservation and paying more for clean energy.

Doering said the key to saving energy will be in the development of more fuel efficient cars and eliminating the use of heating oil in buildings.

Along with that, he said people need to be willing to pay more to get alternative fuels off the ground.

“Solar is expensive. Nuclear is going to very expensive in terms of starting these plants up again. When you’re talking global warming and other concerns, you are talking about capital expenses,” he said. “We’re living in a society now that doesn’t want to pay more in taxes. But these things cost money.”